U.S. Travel Forecasts Slow Growth in Business Travel

The U.S. Travel Association released its biannual forecast for travel to and within the U.S. through 2026, showing that domestic business travel is expected to grow – albeit more slowly than leisure travel – largely due to economic conditions.

The forecast predicts that both volume and spending in domestic business travel will experience double-digit growth in 2023, but that inflation-adjusted spending will be slower than volume in 2024 and beyond. Business travel volume is not expected to recover to 2019 levels until 2025, while inflation-adjusted spending is not expected to recover within the range of the forecast.

Domestic leisure travel is expected to remain strong, but with normalized rates of growth (around 2%) in 2023 and 2024. Volume is expected to grow faster year-over-year than inflation-adjusted spending in 2024 and beyond.

“Robust domestic leisure travel demand has been the driving force in the overall industry’s post-pandemic comeback,” said U.S. Travel Association President and CEO Geoff Freeman. “Though the surge we experienced in the last year is starting to moderate, we expect this segment to remain resilient in coming quarters.”